Trump's 25 Percent Iran Tariff Threat Triggers Backlash from Allies
In a statement posted to his Truth Social platform earlier this month, the US President declared: "Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America." He emphasized: "This order is final and conclusive."
The administration in Washington has not yet provided comprehensive details regarding implementation procedures or enforcement mechanisms, yet the policy declaration has already triggered condemnation from China and Russia—Iran's two most critical economic allies.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, responded on the American social platform X, stating: "Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems," while confirming that Beijing would "take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."
Subsequently, Lin Jian, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, voiced Beijing's opposition to meddling in Iran's domestic matters and expressed support for Iranian stability.
Iran conducts its largest volume of trade with China, with Iraq and the United Arab Emirates ranking second and third respectively.
Moscow similarly rejected the tariff proposal. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova characterized the sanctions as efforts to "blackmail" Iran's commercial partners, contending that Western sanctions are "illegal" and disproportionately impact everyday Iranians.
Zakharova stated: "Foreign forces hostile to Iran are attempting to exploit mounting social tensions to destabilize and destroy the Iranian state," while accusing Western powers of employing "color revolution" tactics.
Economic Pressure Reaches Ceiling
The tariff threat compounds years of US-imposed sanctions that have already severely limited Iran's participation in international banking networks and petroleum markets.
When Iran manages to export oil, obtaining hard currency frequently faces delays or asset freezes in foreign jurisdictions. The International Monetary Fund forecasted in 2025 that both Iranian oil production and exports would decrease by approximately 300,000 barrels daily as of May.
Iran's economic condition continues deteriorating. Recent civil unrest has coincided with dramatic devaluation of the Iranian rial, which plummeted from roughly 817,000 against the US dollar in early 2024 to between 1.42-1.47 million on unofficial markets by late 2025.
Given this context, economic analysts express skepticism about the tariffs' capacity to generate meaningful additional economic strain.
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, professor of economics at Virginia Tech University, explained to media: "The impact depends on ways the affected countries can get around the tariffs and on the degree of enforcement."
He interpreted the policy as potentially indicating preference for economic coercion rather than military action, which Trump has also referenced in recent statements.
Salehi-Isfahani noted that severing official trade relationships by Iran's partners could negatively impact the Iranian economy—though enforcement presents substantial obstacles.
He added: "Private traders may find a way to reroute their trade through other countries that do not export to the US."
Sanction Evasion Networks Remain Robust
Hossein Askari, professor emeritus of international business and international affairs at George Washington University, expressed even greater doubt about the tariffs' effectiveness.
He stated: "Iran does all it can to get around sanctions – smuggling, rerouting through third countries and everything in between," adding: "Countries that trade with Iran do the same. Any country that already trades with Iran is quite fleet-footed."
Askari suggested the tariffs might marginally increase domestic prices and exacerbate supply shortages within Iran, yet would fail to accomplish Washington's overarching policy objectives.
He questioned: "But the question is: will this affect the regime's policies so as to improve daily lives? Clearly not, but it will increase the hardship on all Iranians."
Askari concluded: "The only thing that would bring immediate relief for Iranians is a lifting of all sanctions."
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